The Political Economy of Very Large Space Projects by John Hickman, Ph.D

While popular science writers typically describe the benefits to be derived from their favorite very large space development project in detail, their treatment of the crucial initial capitalization of such projects is typically sparse or implausible. Capitalization is a crucial problem for these projects because the total capital investment required is very large and the investment takes a very long time before producing economic returns. “Chunky” investments are unattractive to most private investors and lenders. Very large space development projects are best understood as massive public works projects which are necessary to open frontiers. Despite the libertarian sentiments in much of the popular science writing on very large space development projects, government would likely have to play a large role in capitalizing such projects. Space development enthusiasts typically explain the significance of their favorite very large space projects−whether constructing orbital colonies or cities beneath the surface of the Moon, terraforming Mars or Venus, or launching interstellar spacecraft−in terms of their promise to produce vast new wealth, open frontiers to serve as social “safety valves” for the ambitious or the dissenting, generate the novel problems that drive dramatic advances in science and engineering, provide new sources of natural resources, and permit population dispersal to assure the long term survival of our species. Without question, these are all laudable reasons for the adventure of space and any very large space project would probably meet several of these objectives. However, if the economic and social promise of these projects is so extraordinary, and if the social losses which result from failing to undertake them are so large, why haven’t humans embarked on them? Why aren’t we even close to beginning one of these great enterprises? Given the assertion made by many space development enthusiasts that the basic technology needed for their favorite projects already exists or can be developed from the available science, asking these questions is entirely fair. The answers must be found in political economy, some rudimentary understanding of which will be necessary before realistic planning for any very large space project can begin. Reading the popular science literature reveals that remarkably few space development enthusiasts have given the political economy of their very large space projects serious thought. Instead, they have chosen to describe the exciting science and engineering possibilities while promising the moon and stars to those who would dare to exploit them. Performing this public relations role is certainly crucial if any very large space project is ever to be realized. Both elite and mass public opinion will be to be inspired if the kind of resources necessary for development are to be mobilized. But something much more fundamental is missing. What needs explaining are the rational motivations for investors to risk their capital in opening a very distant, completely uninhabited frontier that is subject to extreme environmental conditions. Why should investors risk the enormous sums necessary to realize these dreams? Unfortunately, space development enthusiasts typically respond to this question, not by answering it directly, but by itemizing the likely economic benefits derived from space after the capital investments necessary to open the frontier have been made. Space development enthusiasts are also given to lamenting that annual public and private spending on space development compares unfavorably with annual consumer spending on beer and pizza, and to discounting the present value of public and private spending on space against what humanity will gain over the long term from that spending. Granting the truth of all of these arguments, the fact remains that the technology and personnel for very large space projects are less in doubt than is the necessary capital investment. Capital is the essential missing ingredient. The voluntarism evident in so much of the popular science writing about space development is a liability when it prevents recognition of this crucial problem.